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Market Intelligence
Post–March FOMC: policy on hold at 3.5–3.75%; attention turns to Chair Powell (Mar 30) and a packed data week—China PMI, euro-area CPI, U.S. confidence & JOLTS, ISM and retail (Apr 1), claims (Apr 2), then payrolls (Apr 3) alongside Good Friday. Full analysis & charts →
Latest Market News
March FOMC on hold; SEP underscores inflation vigilance
The March meeting left the target range at 3.5–3.75% with one dissent favoring a cut. Updated projections lifted 2026 inflation views while the median policy path was little changed—investors are repricing cuts versus the SEP.
Powell, PMI/CPI, and payrolls anchor the week ahead
Chair Powell speaks Mar 30 (GMT+8). China manufacturing PMI and euro-area CPI (Mar 31), U.S. confidence & JOLTS, then ADP, retail sales & ISM (Apr 1), jobless claims (Apr 2), and the employment report (Apr 3) with Good Friday. Feb payrolls printed −92K; unemployment 4.4%.
Cross-asset dispersion; U.S. equities soft on a 1-month view
Our performance snapshot shows wide gaps across regions and factors—S&P 500 negative over 1M alongside stronger year-ago percentiles in some indices. Diversification and duration management matter more than a single index level.
Market Drivers
Post-FOMC, the debate is how fast inflation cools versus labor slack. Markets still price gradual easing; payrolls and CPI surprises can move the curve. Energy remains an upside risk to goods prices.
Geopolitical risk keeps oil volatile; gold stays macro-sensitive as real rates and the dollar swing. Commodity moves feed back into inflation narratives and sector rotation.
Higher-for-longer yields weigh on duration-heavy equities; breadth and factor exposure diverge. Quality balance sheets and selective hedges remain central as data drive rate expectations.
Market Outlook
Bottom line
Selectively cautious. The March FOMC is in the rear view; the next swing factors are Chair Powell’s tone, global PMI/CPI prints, and the Apr 3 employment report around a holiday-thinned tape. Expect chop around data; favor quality, balance-sheet strength, and explicit risk controls.
Key risk
Payrolls surprise vs. Fed guidance; sticky services inflation; renewed energy shock; geopolitical escalation; credit tightening if growth data crack.
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