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Market Intelligence
Latest Market News
January CPI at 2.4% YoY, Core 2.5% (Lowest Since April 2021)
Consumer prices rose 2.4% YoY in January, down from December's 2.7%. Core CPI matched expectations at 2.5%. Energy fell 1.5% MoM; shelter and food rose modestly. Wall Street divided: most expect June cut; JPMorgan, HSBC, BNP expect no cuts in 2026.
S&P 500 Struggles in February; AI Disruption Weighs on Sentiment
S&P 500 down 1.16% in February, retreating from January high near 7,000. Nasdaq posted fifth consecutive negative week. AI disruption concerns across real estate, trucking, and financial services have weighed on growth stocks. Quality factors favored.
Gold +69.5% 1Y; Bitcoin -28.5%; Divergent Asset Performance
Gold leads with +69.5% 1Y return (100th percentile). Nikkei +36.2%, Hang Seng +26.8%. S&P 500 +15.1%, Nasdaq +15.5%. Bitcoin lags at -28.5% 1Y. 10Y Treasury yield ~4.1%; duration sensitive to inflation and labor data.
Market Drivers
January CPI at 2.4% YoY and core at 2.5% (lowest since April 2021) support the disinflation narrative. Market-implied June cut probability ~55%. March FOMC widely expected to hold; February CPI (March 11) and labor data will shape June odds.
Fed funds at 3.5%-3.75%. Wall Street sharply divided: Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Barclays expect June cut (1-2 cuts in 2026); JPMorgan, HSBC, BNP expect no cuts. 10Y Treasury yield ~4.1%. Quality and selective duration favored.
AI disruption concerns across real estate, trucking, and financial services weigh on growth stocks. Nasdaq fifth consecutive negative week. Quality factors with earnings durability favored. This week: CB Consumer Confidence (Tue), Trump Speaks (Wed), EU CPI (Wed), Jobless Claims (Thu), PPI & Chicago PMI (Fri).
Market Outlook
Short Term (3-6 months)
Constructive - March FOMC widely expected to hold. February CPI (March 11) and labor data will shape June cut probability. Key events: CB Consumer Confidence (Feb 24), Trump Speaks (Feb 25), EU CPI (Feb 25), Jobless Claims (Feb 26), PPI & Chicago PMI (Feb 27). AI disruption narrative remains headwind for growth.
Medium Term (6-12 months)
Balanced - Inflation cooling supports mid-2026 rate cuts if data cooperates. Wall Street divide (no cuts vs 1-2 cuts) creates volatility around policy inflection points. Quality and diversification essential. Gold +69.5% 1Y; equity breadth narrow.
Long Term (12+ months)
Constructive with volatility - Disinflation supports risk assets. Structural themes intact; policy path depends on inflation and labor. No-cut scenario favors defensives and shorter duration; multiple cuts would support risk assets.
Key Risks
Inflation re-acceleration validating no-cut view; AI disruption extending equity volatility; sharp disagreement among rate forecasters increasing policy uncertainty; China markets closed for Lunar New Year (Feb 23).
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