In-depth analysis and insights from our research team
Index performance remains dominated by a narrow leadership group. This report examines concentration risks, breadth signals like equal-weight performance, and the catalysts needed for earnings participation to broaden in 2026.
The dollar remains the core of trade, reserves, and funding, but diversification at the margins is accelerating through gold purchases, local settlement, and regional payment rails. This report maps what is shifting, what is not, and where investors should watch for real change.
Small caps trade at a wide discount after years of lagging mega caps. This report reviews valuation spreads, rate sensitivity, credit conditions, and earnings breadth to identify catalysts that could drive a relative re-rating through 2026.
Emerging markets are entering a new recovery phase led by China and India. This report examines the policy shift, growth catalysts, and portfolio implications for investors seeking exposure to higher-growth economies.
A manufacturing capex boom is reshaping supply chains as reshoring and policy incentives drive multi‑year investment. We outline the scale of projects and implications for industrials, materials, and regional growth.
Liquidity conditions are stabilizing as inflation cools and policy cycles mature. This report outlines the implications for equities, credit, and currencies as risk appetite improves.
As AI markets mature in 2026, investors are shifting focus from broad AI enthusiasm to companies delivering measurable returns...
Gold prices are surging in early 2026, with forecasts predicting a potential rise to $5,000 per ounce driven by escalating geopolitical volatility...
Real-time analysis of worldwide market movements and economic indicators
The table below shows current levels and performance metrics for major asset classes and indices. Performance is calculated as percentage change from 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year ago. Percentile ranking shows where current price level stands relative to historical price levels.Instruments are ranked by 1-month returns from highest to lowest.
| Instrument | 1M Perf | 6M Perf | 1Y Perf | 1Y %ile | 5Y %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (USD/oz) | +23.2% | +61.6% | +90.4% | 100 | 100 |
| Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) | +6.9% | +10.2% | +35.5% | 98 | 78 |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | +2.9% | +12.0% | +15.0% | 97 | 99 |
| STOXX Europe 50 | +2.7% | +8.8% | +12.5% | 99 | 100 |
| S&P 500 | +1.2% | +1.4% | +14.9% | 96 | 99 |
| CSI 300 (China) | +0.7% | +15.5% | +23.3% | 95 | 75 |
| iShares IG Corp Bond (LQD) | +0.3% | +1.7% | +2.1% | 77 | 62 |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | -0.7% | +0.5% | -5.8% | 53 | 23 |
| Nasdaq 100 | -1.4% | -1.6% | +16.2% | 91 | 98 |
| Bitcoin (BTC-USD) | -12.2% | -28.3% | -22.5% | 23 | 81 |
Market Drivers: AI revolution, corporate earnings resilience, and accommodative monetary policy expectations driving risk-on sentiment.
Recent Performance: Technology stocks leading with strong gains, Japanese markets surging on corporate reforms and weak yen benefits.
Mid-term Outlook: Cautiously optimistic. Valuations elevated but earnings growth supportive. Watch for Fed policy shifts and geopolitical tensions.
Market Drivers: Fed policy uncertainty, inflation expectations, and flight-to-quality flows during market stress periods.
Recent Performance: Corporate bonds outperforming government bonds, yield curve steepening on growth optimism.
Mid-term Outlook: Neutral to bearish. Rising rates environment likely to continue, favoring shorter duration and credit over duration.
Market Drivers: Fed hawkish stance, US economic resilience, and safe-haven flows during global uncertainty.
Recent Performance: DXY maintaining strength, JPY weakness continuing, EUR/USD stable.
Mid-term Outlook: Bullish bias maintained. Fed policy divergence and US growth outperformance supporting continued USD strength.
Market Drivers: Geopolitical tensions, central bank diversification, inflation hedge demand, and safe-haven flows.
Recent Performance: Gold showing mixed performance with geopolitical uncertainty, maintaining safe-haven appeal.
Mid-term Outlook: Bullish. Structural demand from central banks and geopolitical uncertainty supporting continued strength.
Market Drivers: Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ supply management, global demand recovery, and energy transition pressures.
Recent Performance: Oil prices stabilizing after recent volatility, natural gas showing seasonal weakness.
Mid-term Outlook: Neutral to bullish. Supply constraints and geopolitical risks supporting prices, but demand uncertainty remains.
Market Drivers: Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, ETF approvals, and digital asset integration into traditional finance.
Recent Performance: Bitcoin showing strong momentum with increasing correlation to traditional markets.
Mid-term Outlook: Bullish. Continued institutional adoption and regulatory acceptance supporting long-term growth trajectory.
Market Drivers: Fed policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, earnings season volatility, and macro data surprises.
Recent Performance: VIX at moderate levels, MOVE showing elevated bond volatility, currency volatility indicating FX stress.
Mid-term Outlook: Elevated volatility likely to persist. Bond volatility particularly sensitive to Fed policy shifts and inflation data.
Understanding relationships between major asset classes and indices
The table below shows the correlation coefficients between major asset classes and indices based on recent price movements. Values close to 1 indicate strong positive correlation, values close to -1 indicate strong negative correlation, and values near 0 indicate little or no correlation. Data is calculated using 2 years of daily price data for robust statistical analysis.
| S&P 500 | Nasdaq 100 | Gold (USD/oz) | US 10Y Treasury Yield | Bitcoin (BTC-USD) | Nikkei 225 (Japan) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.90 | -0.58 | 0.11 | 0.74 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.89 | -0.54 | 0.06 | 0.79 |
| Gold (USD/oz) | 0.90 | 0.89 | 1.00 | -0.57 | 0.19 | 0.68 |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | -0.58 | -0.54 | -0.57 | 1.00 | 0.24 | -0.03 |
| Bitcoin (BTC-USD) | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 1.00 | 0.15 |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 0.74 | 0.79 | 0.68 | -0.03 | 0.15 | 1.00 |
Risk-adjusted performance metrics for major asset classes
The Sharpe ratio measures risk-adjusted return. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better return per unit of risk. Max Drawdown shows the largest peak-to-trough decline, and VaR (Value at Risk) represents the potential loss at 95% confidence level. All metrics are calculated using 2 years of daily data for robust statistical analysis. Volatility is annualized from daily returns, Sharpe ratio uses a 2% risk-free rate, and VaR is calculated at 95% confidence level. Instruments are ranked by Sharpe ratio from highest to lowest.
| Instrument | 2Y Return (%) | 2Y Volatility (%) | 2Y Sharpe Ratio | 2Y Max Drawdown (%) | 2Y 95% VaR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (USD/oz) | +95.7% | 17.2% | 1.97 | -9.6% | -1.6% |
| S&P 500 | +67.3% | 16.3% | 1.49 | -19.0% | -1.4% |
| Nasdaq 100 | +83.3% | 20.7% | 1.44 | -22.9% | -2.0% |
| STOXX Europe 50 | +57.4% | 17.7% | 1.22 | -16.1% | -1.7% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | +45.2% | 18.9% | 0.96 | -16.0% | -1.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTC-USD) | +227.1% | 37.8% | 0.83 | -28.2% | -3.6% |
| CSI 300 (China) | +36.2% | 26.7% | 0.66 | -33.9% | -1.9% |
| iShares IG Corp Bond (LQD) | +13.4% | 7.4% | 0.65 | -7.6% | -0.7% |
| Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) | +30.2% | 22.2% | 0.63 | -25.3% | -2.0% |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | +9.1% | 14.1% | 0.28 | -17.1% | -1.5% |
Stay informed of key upcoming economic events and data releases
Stay informed of key upcoming economic events and data releases that may impact global markets.
| Date | Time (GMT+8) | Event/ Data Release | Country | Previous | Consensus | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2nd Feb | 22:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | US | 51.9 | 51.9 | High |
| Mon 2nd Feb | 23:00 | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan) | US | 58.5 | 59.3 | High |
| Mon 2nd Feb | 23:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | US | 47.9 | 48.5 | High |
| Tue 3rd Feb | 23:00 | JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) | US | 7.146M | 7.210M | High |
| Wed 4th Feb | 18:00 | CPI (YoY) (Jan) | EU | 1.9% | 1.8% | High |
| Wed 4th Feb | 21:15 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) | US | 41K | 48K | High |
| Wed 4th Feb | 22:45 | S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) | US | 52.5 | 52.5 | High |
| Wed 4th Feb | 23:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jan) | US | - | - | High |
| Wed 4th Feb | 23:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | US | 53.8 | 53.8 | High |
| Wed 4th Feb | 23:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | US | -2.295M | - | High |
| Thu 5th Feb | 21:15 | Deposit Facility Rate (Feb) | EU | 2.00% | 2.00% | High |
| Thu 5th Feb | 21:15 | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | EU | 2.15% | 2.15% | High |
| Thu 5th Feb | 21:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | US | 209K | 213K | High |
| Thu 5th Feb | 21:45 | ECB Press Conference | EU | - | - | High |
| Fri 6th Feb | 21:30 | Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) | US | 0.3% | 0.3% | High |
| Fri 6th Feb | 21:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | US | 50K | 67K | High |
| Fri 6th Feb | 21:30 | Unemployment Rate (Jan) | US | 4.4% | 4.4% | High |
Next week's focus is January PMIs and labor signals, with ISM manufacturing/services, JOLTS, and ADP ahead of Friday payrolls. Eurozone CPI and the ECB decision/press conference add rate-path sensitivity, while jobless claims and earnings data frame near-term risk sentiment.
Browse our complete collection of research reports and market analysis
Index performance remains dominated by a narrow leadership group. This report examines concentration risks, breadth signals like equal-weight performance, and the catalysts needed for earnings participation to broaden in 2026.
The dollar remains the core of trade, reserves, and funding, but diversification at the margins is accelerating through gold purchases, local settlement, and regional payment rails. This report maps what is shifting, what is not, and where investors should watch for real change.
Small caps trade at a wide discount after years of lagging mega caps. This report reviews valuation spreads, rate sensitivity, credit conditions, and earnings breadth to identify catalysts that could drive a relative re-rating through 2026.
A manufacturing capex boom is reshaping supply chains as reshoring and policy incentives drive multi‑year investment. We outline the scale of projects and implications for industrials, materials, and regional growth.
Emerging markets are entering a new recovery phase led by China and India. This report examines the policy shift, growth catalysts, and portfolio implications for investors seeking exposure to higher-growth economies.
Liquidity conditions are stabilizing as inflation cools and policy cycles mature. This report outlines the implications for equities, credit, and currencies as risk appetite improves.
As AI markets mature in 2026, investors are shifting focus from broad AI enthusiasm to companies delivering measurable returns. This analysis examines the transition toward AI infrastructure investments in data collection, cloud applications, robotics, and memory technologies, providing strategic insights for navigating the evolving investment landscape.
Gold prices are surging in early 2026, with forecasts predicting a potential rise to $5,000 per ounce driven by escalating geopolitical volatility. This analysis examines the fundamental drivers behind gold's rally, including central bank buying and inflation concerns, and explores strategic portfolio allocation considerations for investors.
The Federal Reserve is expected to pause its rate cutting cycle in January 2026, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent before potential cuts in March and June. This analysis examines the Fed's neutral policy stance, economic data driving decisions, and strategic considerations for investors positioning portfolios.
Elevated geopolitical risk is lifting volatility across energy, shipping, and defense supply chains. This report explains the transmission channels and portfolio implications.
A softer dollar has broad implications for commodities and emerging markets as policy divergence narrows. This report maps the transmission channels and allocation impacts for 2026.
AI adoption is moving from pilots to scaled deployment, lifting productivity and reshaping capex priorities. We outline winners, laggards, and sector leadership implications.
This comprehensive analysis examines the current ETF market trends and investor behavior patterns. The article explores the implications of the growing ETF frenzy on market dynamics, liquidity, and traditional investment strategies, providing insights for both retail and institutional investors navigating this evolving landscape.
This analysis explores the evolving mindset of investors in today's market environment. The article examines whether recent market volatility and economic uncertainty have led to more realistic expectations and risk assessment among investors, and what this means for market behavior and investment strategies going forward.
This comprehensive analysis examines the USDJPY currency pair and explores whether the traditional carry trade strategy is reaching its end. The article analyzes the impact of shifting monetary policies, interest rate differentials, and market dynamics on the yen-dollar relationship, providing strategic insights for forex traders and investors.
This comprehensive analysis examines the current liquidity conditions in global markets and questions whether the apparent abundance of liquidity represents a sustainable foundation for market growth or a temporary mirage. The article explores the implications for asset prices, market stability, and investment strategies in an environment of uncertain monetary policy.
This analysis explores the current period of unusually low market volatility and what it might signal for future market movements. The article examines whether this calm represents complacency or a new market equilibrium, providing insights for investors navigating seemingly stable but potentially deceptive market conditions.
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This analysis examines the current state of global bond markets and explores whether we're witnessing a fundamental reset in fixed income valuations. The article analyzes the impact of changing interest rate environments, inflation expectations, and central bank policies on bond market dynamics and investment opportunities.
This comprehensive analysis examines the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel and their potential impact on global financial markets. The article explores how geopolitical risks could affect oil prices, regional markets, and global investment strategies, providing key insights for investors navigating uncertain geopolitical waters.
This comprehensive analysis examines the recent surge in commodity prices and its implications for global markets. The article explores the driving forces behind the commodity rally, including supply constraints, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures, providing strategic insights for investors navigating the evolving commodity landscape.
The article highlights structured products as a strategic way to invest in U.S. equities during volatile markets and high interest rates. They offer capital protection with upside potential, but investors should be mindful of credit risk, liquidity, and complexity.
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The article highlights that while the VIX is at its 2-year average, the elevated VVIX suggests investors are highly sensitive to potential risks. This means that despite stable headline volatility, markets are quick to react to news and economic developments, indicating underlying nervousness.